Publications Complex Systems, Ecology & Evolution, Quant agronomy

Recent Selected Publications

Testing for stationary dynamics in the Barro Colorado Island forest
A Cavagna, H Fort, TS Grigera. Ecological Indicators 146, 109880 (2023).

A game-theory–inspired decomposition of interspecific interaction matrices
B Király, H Fort, Europhysics Letters 138 (2), 22003 (2022).

Network science: Applications for sustainable agroecosystems and food security
FM Windsor, D Armenteras, APA Assis, J Astegiano, PC Santana, ...
Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation 20, 79-90 (2022).

A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world.

Fort, H. Virus Research 304, 198531 (2021).

A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests.

Fort, H. and Grigera, T. Ecological Indicators 446, 109504 (2021).

A method for predicting species trajectories tested with trees in Barro Colorado tropical forest.
Fort, H. and Grigera, T. Ecological Modelling 125, 107506 (2021).

Combining niche and game theories to address interspecific cooperation in ecological communities.
Fort, H. Community Ecology 21, pages13–24 (2020).

Making quantitative predictions on the yield of a species immersed in a multispecies community: the focal species method.
Fort, H. Ecological Modelling 430, 109108 (2020).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109108.

An application of a dynamical model with ecological predator-prey approach to extensive livestock farming in Uruguay: Economical assessment on forage deficiency.
Dieguez, F. and Fort, H. Journal of Dynamics and Games 6,119–129 (2019).
DOI: 10.3934/jdg.2019009

Quantitative predictions from competition theory with an incomplete knowledge of model parameters tested against experiments across diverse taxa.

Fort, H. Ecological Modelling 368: 104-106 (2018).

Competition across diverse taxa: quantitative integration of theory and empirical research using global indices of competition

DOI: 10.1111/oik.04756 (2017).

Modeling plant interspecific interactions from experiments with perennial crop mixtures to

predict optimal combinations.
Halty, V.,Matías Valdés, Mauricio Tejera, Valentín Picasso, Hugo Fort

Applied Ecology DOI: 10.1002/eap.1605 (2017).

Towards scientifically based management of extensive livestock farming in terms of ecological

predator-prey modeling

Dieguez, F. and Fort, H.

Agricultural Systems 153: 127-137 (2017).

Abundance and generalisation in mutualistic networks: solving the chicken-and-egg dilemma.

Fort, H, Vázquez, D. P. and Lan, B. O.

Ecology Letters, doi:10.1111/ele.12535 (2015).

Using Expectation Maximization and Resource Overlap techniques to classify species

according to their niche similarities in mutualistic networks.

Fort, H. and Mungan, M.
Entropy 17(11): 7680-7697; doi:10.3390/e17117680 (2015).

Predicting abundances of plants and pollinators using a simple compartmental mutualistic model.

Fort, H. and Mungan, M.

Proc. Roy. Soc. B, 282; DOI: 10.1098/ rspb.2015.0376 (2015).

Community diversity and total abundance: Quantitative predictions from competition niche theory.

Fort, H.

Ecological Complexity, 21: 120–127 (2015).

Metabolic dependence of phytoplankton species richness
Segura, A. et al.
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24 (4): 472–482 (2015).

Quantitative predictions of pollinators’ abundances from qualitative data on their interactions with

plants and evidences of emergent neutrality.

Fort, H.

Oikos 123: 1469–1478 (2014).

Statistical Mechanics Ideas and Techniques Applied to Selected Problems in Ecology

Fort, H.

Entropy 15(12): 5237-5276; Review (2013).

Competition Drives Clumpy Species Coexistence in Estuarine Phytoplankton

A. M. Segura, C. Kruk, D. Calliari, F. García-Rodriguez, D. Conde, C. E. Widdicombe & H. FORT

Nature Scientific Reports 3, Article number: 1037 (2013)

Two Cellular Automata Designed for Ecological Problems: Mendota CA and Barro Colorado Island CA

FORT, H.

In Emerging Applications of Cellular Automata, ISBN 978-953-51-1101-6 (2013).

Tropical forests are non-equilibrium ecosystems governed by interspecific competition based on

universal 1/6 niche width.

Fort, H and Inchausti, P.

PLOS ONE 8, Issue 12, e82768 (2013).

Fat tails in marine microbial population fluctuations.

A. M. Segura,; D. Calliari,; H. FORT,; B. L. Lan.

Oikos 122: 1739-1745 (2013).

Use of a morphology-based functional approach to model phytoplankton community succession in a shallow subtropical lake

Segura, A. M., Kruk, C., Calliari, D., García-Rodriguez, F., Conde, D., Widdicombe, C. E. & FORT, H.

Fresh Water Biology, 58: 504–512 (2013).

Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces.

FORT, H. and Inchausti, P.

Journal of Statistical Mechanics, 2012: 1 - 12, (2012).

ISSN: 17425468 ; DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/2012/02/P02013

Simple Rules for Complex Collective Behavior.

H. Fort

American Journal of Psychology, 124: 243 - 247, (2011)

ISSN: 00029556

Emergent neutrality drives phytoplankton species coexistence.

A. Segura; D. Calliari; C. Cruk; D. Conde; S. Bonilla; FORT, H.

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B 278: 2355 - 2361 (2011).

Negentropy Generation and Fractality in the Dry Friction of Polished Surfaces.

P. Fleurquin; FORT, H.; M Kornbluth; R. Sandler; M. Segall; F. Zypman

Entropy 12 (3): 480 - 489 (2010).

Viral Quasispecies Profiles as the Result of the Interplay of Competition and Cooperation.

J. Arbiza; S. Mirazo; FORT, H.

BMC Evolutionary Biology (e-resource) 10 (2010).

The clumping transition in niche competition: a robust critical phenomenon.

FORT, H.; Egbert van Nes; Marten Scheffer

Journal of Statistical Mechanics 2010: 1 - 17 (2010).

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures as

phase transition processes.

FORT, H.; Nestor Mazzeo; Marten Scheffer; Egbert van Nes

Journal of Physics 246: 012035 (2010).

Traveling Salesman Problem for Finite-Size Cities.

FORT, H., Zypman, F. and Kornbluth, M.

Mathematical Structures in Computer Science, 21: 1 - 13 (2010).

Error Catastrophe for Viruses Infecting Cells: Analysis of the Phase Transition in terms of Error Classes.

Alonso Julia; FORT, H.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 368: 5569-5582 (2010).

EARLY WARNINGS IN ECOSYSTEMS: COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT INDICATORS

R. Donangelo, H. Fort, M. Scheffer, E. van Nes and V. Dakos

International Journal of Bifurcations and Chaos, 20 (2) (2010).

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts.

V. Dakos, E. van Nes, R. Donangelo, H. Fort and M. Scheffer

Theoretical Ecology 3: 163-174 (2010).

Catastrophic Phase Transitions and Early Warnings in a Spatial Ecological Model

A. Fernández and H. Fort

Journal of Statistical Mechanics 2009 P09014 (2009).

The paradox of the clumps mathematically explained

Fort, H, Scheffer, M. and van Nes, E.

Theoretical Ecology 2:171-176 (2009).

A minimal model for the evolution of cooperation through evolving heterogeneous games

Fort, H.

European Physics Letters 81 48008 (2008).

A compartmental model that can be used to describe, explain and predict the species abundances for mutualistic plant–pollinator networks.

Highlights

First competition model for individuals simultaneously in physical space (local neighborhoods) and niche space.
Empirical data suggest a universal niche width for tropical forests.

Qualitative interaction matrices of plant-pollinator networks are enough to explain the observed abundances of pollinators.
Clumpy structure for abundances of pollinators along the niche axis.

Community biomass & biodiversity from the degree of resource overlap.
An approx formula for total equilibrium biomass in terms of the mean niche width..

An ecological approach for RNA viruses in terms of interspecific competition + facilitation.

Parallelism between catastrophic shifts in ecosystems and the physics of phase transitions used for early warning signals.

A general approach to uncover causal links in chicken-and-egg dilemmas. Applied to mutualistic networks, it provides evidence that the causal link between abundance and generalisation is uni-directional. Species are generalists because they are abundant. The opposite, species are abundant because they are generalists, is not supported by data.

Analytical formulas for predicting the relative yield total (RYT) & mean relative yield (MRY) as a functions of the mean intensity of the interspecific competition and the species richness. This method, with only a fraction of the model parameters, is able to predict accurately the empirical RYT & MRY for a wide variety of taxa −algae, plants, protozoa, etc.

Connecting network theory with the classical ecological niche theory for mutualistic plant-pollinator webs via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.

A combination of experiments and modelling offers a scientific method for designing overyielding and sustainable grassland mixtures.

Different global -for the whole community- indices of competition, like the relative yield total (RYT) , the mean relative yield (MRY) and overyielding factor analyzed for a wide variety of taxa from bacteria to mammals and algae, plants, protozoa, etc.

The rise of the alpha variant of COVID-19 is reproduced with an almost universal single parameter. This allows predicting the dynamics of COVID-19 VOCs, a crucial input for health managers.

Predicting changes in species abundances is crucial for community conservation. These two papers provide early warnings of species population crashes which are central for environmental conservation.

Introduces the Lotka-Volterra Niche Game Model (LVNGM).This new framework is used to analyze the effects of including cooperative interspecific interactions on two global properties of a community, its aggregate biomass or total yield and its biodiversity, measured by the Shannon equitability.

Estimating all the required parameters to predict the yield of a species of interest within a community of species that interact with it may be unfeasible. The focal species approximation, with only a fraction of these parameters, can make quite accurate predictions.

A quantitative tool to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of forage deficiency on extensive farming based on native grasslands. Designed with the goal to manage climate risk .

The clumping structure simply obtained by linear stability analysis: the dominant eigenvector of the competition matrix explains this emergent neutrality.

Payoffs of the game emerging themselves from the evolutionary dynamics rather than being given parameters.